Muslim-majority constituencies emerge as key battlegrounds ahead of Bihar polls 2025

As Bihar heads toward the 2025 Assembly elections, one question has drawn special attention — who holds the real advantage in Muslim-majority and Muslim-dominated regions? On the surface, it may seem that the Mahagathbandhan alliance — consisting of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Indian National Congress, three Left parties, and the Vikassheel Insaan Party — has a clear edge. After all, Muslims have traditionally been seen as a core support base of this alliance. But election numbers from the past three polls tell a very different story.

BJP’s unexpected dominance in Muslim-heavy areas

According to data from previous elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have performed surprisingly well in Muslim-dominated seats. Out of 51 Assembly constituencies where Muslims make up a significant share of the population, the NDA managed to win 35 seats in the 2020 Bihar elections — a success rate of nearly 70%. This strike rate was much higher than what the alliance achieved in other regions of the state.

The trend is not new. In 2010, the BJP and its then-ally Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), together performed strongly in these areas. Their numbers fell only in 2015, when they contested separately, allowing the Mahagathbandhan to make some gains. However, once the two parties reunited for the 2020 election, the NDA once again regained its ground.

These 51 seats are spread across seven key districts: Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria, Purnia, Darbhanga, Paschim Champaran, and Sitamarhi. Among these, Kishanganj is the only Muslim-majority district, with Muslims making up around 68% of its population. Katihar follows with about 45%, Araria with 43%, and Purnia with 38%. The remaining districts — Darbhanga, Paschim Champaran, and Sitamarhi — have smaller but still significant Muslim populations, averaging around 22%.

Interestingly, the BJP has not been able to win seats in Kishanganj, where Muslim voters form the overwhelming majority. However, in the other six districts, the NDA has shown strong results. In Katihar, for example, the BJP won three of the seven seats, and its ally JD(U) secured one in the 2020 polls. A similar pattern appeared in Araria and Purnia, where the BJP-JD(U) alliance captured eight of the 13 available seats.

The same voting pattern extends beyond these seven districts. In another set of four districts — Purvi Champaran, Supaul, Madhubani, and Siwan — Muslims make up around 18% or more of the population. Together, these four districts account for 35 Assembly seats. In both the 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP remained the single largest party in these constituencies, while in 2010, JD(U) had dominated. The BJP-JD(U) alliance together won 24 of these 35 seats in 2020 and an impressive 31 seats in 2010.

Why voting results differ from surveys

Survey data from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) repeatedly shows that the majority of Muslims in Bihar express support for the Mahagathbandhan. Yet, the election results show the BJP and its allies winning far more Muslim-dominated constituencies than one might expect. This difference can be explained by several political and local factors.

One major reason is vote fragmentation. In many constituencies, multiple Muslim candidates contest elections — often from different parties within or outside the Mahagathbandhan. This division of votes allows NDA candidates, who often have a solid and united Hindu voter base, to win despite getting fewer Muslim votes.

Another factor is the mixed nature of these constituencies. While Muslims make up 20–40% of the population in several districts, they do not form the majority everywhere. In these areas, even if most Muslims vote for one alliance, the NDA can still win with consolidated support from other communities such as upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and Dalits. This broad social coalition has been the BJP’s biggest strength in Bihar over the past decade.

ALSO READ: How Cyclone Montha got its name and what it means

ALSO READ: How data is shaping our future decisions and opportunities

The BJP’s grassroots presence and focus on welfare schemes have also helped it reach voters across communities. Development programmes like housing, toilets, and cooking gas connections under central schemes have influenced many rural families, including Muslim households. This, combined with JD(U)’s regional networks, has helped the NDA remain competitive even in areas with a strong Muslim presence.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan has struggled with internal unity. The RJD, Congress, and Left parties often compete for the same voter base, creating confusion among supporters. In several constituencies, disagreements over candidate selection have resulted in rebel candidates and cross-voting, indirectly benefiting the NDA.

The political narrative has also evolved. Earlier, elections in Muslim-dominated regions were shaped largely by issues of communal harmony and secularism. But now, development, law and order, and employment are equally important. The BJP’s campaign strategy often focuses on highlighting local infrastructure projects and social welfare benefits, while the RJD-led alliance continues to emphasise secular and anti-communal messaging.

What lies ahead in 2025

As Bihar prepares for the 2025 Assembly elections, both alliances are trying to strengthen their positions in these key seats. The Mahagathbandhan is working on uniting its voter base and preventing vote splits among Muslim candidates. It also aims to counter the BJP’s development narrative by focusing on rising unemployment and migration — issues that still deeply affect the state.

On the other hand, the BJP and JD(U) are likely to highlight their record in governance and welfare delivery. They will also attempt to win more trust among minority voters by projecting themselves as providers of stability and growth. The NDA’s strategy seems to rely on keeping its broad coalition intact and benefiting from any divisions within the opposition alliance.

Kishanganj, the only Muslim-majority district, will once again be closely watched. It remains a stronghold of the Congress and RJD, but if the BJP makes even a small breakthrough there, it could change the symbolic narrative.

Despite surveys predicting Muslim support for the Mahagathbandhan, the past three elections show that numbers often tell another story. Unless the opposition can prevent vote division and maintain unity, the NDA could continue to dominate in many Muslim-dominated seats — defying traditional assumptions once again.